经济学人·2018特辑 | 遇见「OMO」智慧【上】
引言:“未来世界即将迎来‘OMO’(Online-Merge-Offline线上与线下融合)的时代,而中国的发展速度相当惊人,将有望在全球范围内首先实现OMO。”本文为李开复在《经济学人(The Economist)》杂志的The World in 2018特辑上发表的专栏文章,结合出行、零售、教育等多个领域,描述OMO给生活带来的改变。
Meet OMO sapiens
Two years ago, the morning view from my office in northern Beijing was a snaking[1] traffic jam of cars. Today I look down to see a rush of orange and yellow bicycles, as commuters have leapt onto the "smart" bicycles that are reshaping rush hour in China's busiest cities.
两年前,早上当我从北京的办公室里往下看,看到的是车水马龙,拥堵非常严重。而今天我再往下看的时候,却是来去匆匆的橘黄色自行车,这就是现在的上班族骑的“智能”自行车。如今,“智能”自行车正在悄悄改变中国繁华城区早晚高峰时的景象。
[1]snaking由snake一词演变而来,表示“蛇形的”,是不是很形象?!可以说“The snaking track might take up acres and acres of rich land.”。与snake有关的短语有“snake its way”,表示“蜿蜒行进,弯曲延伸”,英文解释是“Something that snakes its way moves or is arranged in a twisting way”。比如“长长的队伍排到楼下后又一直延伸到了街上。”就可以这样说:“A long queue had formed, snaking its way downstairs and out into the street.”
In less than a year Mobike (in which my venture fund invested) has reached 25m rides per day. That illustrates another force that will be vastly more transformative in 2018: the boundaries between the online and offline worlds are being erased.
“智能”自行车的代表品牌——摩拜单车,是创新工场所投资的一家企业,它在不到一年的时间里实现了每天2500万的骑行量。这些都在显示,2018年我们将迎来一场有力的变革:线上与线下的界限被消除。
These bikes are not the rusty clunkers[2] you may have seen in old black-and-white photos of China's capital. They are equipped with solar-powered GPS, accelerator, Bluetooth and a thermos detector. Both NFC (near-field communications) and microphones are activated by smartphone. To sign up to ride, you make a digital payment from your phone, and the bike's smart lock automatically opens.
这些单车并不是北京早期黑白照片中那些生锈破旧的自行车,而是装上了太阳能全球定位系统、加速器、蓝牙和测温计的智能体。用户通过智能手机,就能激活车上的近场通讯和麦克风。注册骑行也很简单,用手机支付押金后,摩拜单车上的智能锁就会自动打开。
[2]clunkers有两个意思。其一表示“破旧的汽车[机器]”,英文解释为“an old car or other machine that does not work well”;其二表示“彻底的失败;毫无价值的东西”,英文解释“something that is completely unsuccessful because people think it is stupid or wrong”。
As you cycle around the city, the various sensors transmit your moving co-ordinates[3] and other data to a cloud-based server. Each day, millions of cyclists peddling around Chinese megacities generate 20 terabytes of data, which feed back into Mobike's cloud servers—connecting people, bikes, roads and destinations as one of the world's largest "internet of things" networks. Mobike's servers use artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse traffic patterns and to balance supply and demand, maximising usage and alerting the company to any problems.
在骑行过程中,各种传感器会把用户的移动坐标和其他数据传输到云计算服务器。每天,中国大城市的数百万摩拜单车会产生20T的数据,并反馈到云服务器上,从而将人、自行车、道路和目的地连接起来,构成了全球最大的“物联网”网络。摩拜单车服务器采用人工智能来分析交通状况并平衡供需关系,从而实现效率最大化。
[3]coordinates:The coordinates of a point on a map or graph are the two sets of numbers or letters that you need in order to find that point. 坐标
Can you give me your coordinates?
能给我你的坐标吗?
I call this futuristic but imminent world "OMO" (online merges with offline). Four factors are enabling the arrival of omo: rapid smartphone uptake[4], frictionless payment systems, cheaper and better sensors, and advances in AI. In each of these areas, China is moving extraordinarily fast, and is poised to see the OMO future first.
我把这种现象称之为即将到来的未来世界“OMO”( Online-Merge-Offline,线上与线下融合)。四个因素将助力OMO时代的到来:智能手机的大规模应用、流畅的支付系统、质优价廉的传感器,以及人工智能技术的进步。在所有这些领域,中国的发展速度惊人,并且未来将有望首先实现OMO。
[4]uptake
1)the rate at which a substance is taken into the body, a system etc 吸收,摄取(率)
the uptake of sugars by the blood
血液对糖分的吸收率
2)the number of people who use a service or accept something that is offered 接受〔某种服务或某事物〕的人数
The uptake of some vaccinations fell as the media stirred up fears of possible side effects.
媒体激起了人们对疫苗可能产生副作用的恐惧之后,有些疫苗的注射人数下降了。
3)相关短语有“be slow/quick on the uptake”表示“to be slow or fast at understanding something 领会[理解]慢/快”,如:
She is not an intellectual, but is quick on the uptake.
她不是一个智力超群的人,但是理解事物却很快。
China now has 731m people wielding[5] smartphones, all equipped with GPS and other sensors. Some 70% of them use their phones for digital payments, in lieu of[代替] credit card or cash. This frictionless digital payment is nearly instantaneous, usually zero-fee, requires no minimum purchase and can be used person-to-person (not only person-to-business, like credit cards).
中国现在有7.31亿智能手机用户,这些智能手机上都配置有全球定位系统和传感器。在这7.31亿用户当中,70%的人在购物时,会使用移动支付取代信用卡或者现金付款。流畅的电子付款几乎是实时到账,通常不收取手续费,而且不限制最低购买量。此外,不像银行卡只能用于个人对企业转账,移动支付可以实现个人对个人转账。
[5]wield表示“拿着 (武器、工具或设备)”或“掌握(权力)”,如“He remains chairman, but wields little power at the company.他还是主席,但在公司内没有什么权力。”
In the past three years this new way of buying things has taken the Chinese economy by storm. Easy digital payment systems have paved the way[6] for not just Mobike, but also Didi (the Uber of China), Meituan (delivering over 10m take-out meals per day) and many other new companies. Many of these are now also expanding internationally.
过去三年,这种购物方式在中国的经济领域掀起了巨大风暴。除摩拜单车外,便捷的移动支付系统还为滴滴、美团和许多其他新兴企业铺平了道路。其中滴滴相当于中国的优步,美团每天有1000万的外卖订单量。所有这些现在都在朝着国际化的方向发展。
[6]pave the way: If something paves the way for/to something else, it makes the other thing possible. (为…)铺平道路,(为…)创造条件
Scientists hope that data from the probe will pave the way for a more detailed exploration of Mars.
科学家们希望探测飞船发回的数据会为更深入地探索火星提供条件。
「未完待续」